2
reduction in barriers, unnecessary legal costs to
business.
Secondly,
there has been improvement in
credit quality. Credit flows are more directed
towards manufacturing and the private sector.
Thirdly,
Vietnam has effectively utilized
the opportunities from the global economic
recovery, thus significantly increasing the export
turnover.
However, Vietnam’s average economic
growth in the 2016 - 2017 period still showed a
lack of sustainability. In particular, growth was
lower than that in the pre-crisis period, namely
7.13 % in 2007 and an average of 7.6% per year
during the 1990-2006 period. The real growth
rate in the 2016-2017 period was still lower than
the rate projected for the 2016-2020 period (6.5-
7% per year).
Growth potential still presents some
limitations. The quality of growth improved
slowly: The productivity of the whole economy
in 2017 increased by 6%, higher than that of
2016. However, the productivity has still not met
the requirements of improving the economic
quality, enhancing the economic competitiveness
compared to other countries in the region. Total
factor productivity growth (TFP) contributed
only 33.58% to economic growth in the 2011-2015
period. In 2016, the growth went up to 40.68%
and 45.19% in 2017. Thus, economic growth
seems to get closer to its limit.
The analysis shows that potential growth has
been slowly improving. Public debt remains
MEDIUM-TERMECONOMIC GROWTH:
CURRENT SITUATIONANDRELATED CONCERNS
NGUYEN ANH DUONG MA., DO THI NHAN THIEN –
Central Institute of Economic Management*
In recent years, Vietnam’s considerably transforming economy has witnessed the recovery of economic
growth, the relative stability of macro economy and the inhancement of investors’ trust. However, the
recovery of economic growth has yet to be fast and sustainable. At times, there were concerns about
failures in achieving economic growth. Based on the analysis of economic growth over the past years, the
article points out some recommendations to enhance the potential growth of Vietnam in medium and
long term.
Keywords:
Economic growth, investors, enterprises
Received: December 27
th
, 2017
Revised: January 18
th
, 2018
Accepted for publication: January 25
th
, 2018
Changes in economic growth
in the period of 2011-2017
Since2011when theGovernment implemented
synchronously robust and continuous measures
to stabilize the macro economy and restructure
the economy, economic growth has been
recovering step by step. In 2017, GDP reached
6.81%, highest in 6 years. According to the
General Statistics Office, GDP in 2017 was much
higher than that in the period of 2011-2016. In
particular, in the period of 2012-2014, GDP was
less than 6% (5.25%, 5.42% and 5.9% respectively)
and GDP in 2011, 2012 and 2013 was less than
6.7% (6.24%, 6,68% and 6.21% respectively).
The achievements in 2017 confirmed the
timeliness and effectivenss of the solutions
issued by the Government; directed drastically
by governments at all levels and sectors; and
implementedby locals. It seemedthat therecovery
of economic growth was not accompanied by
inflation. In fact, inflation was controlled at a
relatively stable rate: Average Consumer Price
Index increased by 2.66% and 3.53% in 2016 and
2017 respectively. The changes resulted from the
followings:
Firstly,
economic restructuring efforts in the
past years have somehow brought about positive
impacts on supply. Business environment has
become more open, in which there has been a
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