60
TABLE 2: IMPACT MEASUREMENT OF THE FACTORS OF THE
PHILIPPINES’ EXPORT REGRESSION
Independent
Variable
Regression
Coefficient
Z test
Intercept
4,243
2,60***
Ln(GDPit*GDPjt)
1,286
13,70***
Ln(POPit*POPjt)
-0,412
-4,30***
Ln(OPENit*OPENjt)
0,257
1,28
LnCAPit
-0,072
-1,39
LnDISij
-1,369
-6,52***
LnEDISijt
0,080
1,55
LnINFit
-0,141
-2,30**
APECij
0,553
3,48***
LANGij
0,227
1,83*
Observations
2618
Multi-adjusted
coefficient ( )
0,6795
Wald test value
591,96
Remark: *, **, ***: Equivalent to the level of significance less than 10%, 5%, 1% respectively
Data source: Conducted and summarized by the authors using Stata
Population aggregate variable (POPit*POPjt)
with coefficient bearing negative value means the
product of the Philippines’ population and the
import country’s population has negative impact
on the export of the Philippines with significant
level less than 1%. This also means that when
(POPit*POPjt) increases by 1%, the export of the
Philippines will decrease by 0.412%. Comparing
with given hypotheses and previous studies
findings, these results shows an opposition in
impact direction.
Most of the previous studies explain that the
population increases (the labour increases), the
export countrywill have opportunities to expand
production scale and, hence, increase the export
of goods. For the import country, an increase of
population will lead to the larger consumption
and resulted in the increase of goods import.
However, this argument may vary from the
practical situation of the Philippines’ recent
export. By observing economics results of the
Philippines for the period 2000 – 2016, it shows
that the direct relationship between population
and GDP (increased population, increased
labour and increased GDP). Therefore, the
negative sign of the (POPit*POPjt) variable in
the model is explained due to the considerable
effect of the import country’s population.
This means that the population of the import
country increases causes the labour scale and
consequently domestic production capacity
increase too and, therefore, the demand for
import goods is reduced.
In fact, the export activities of the Philippines
are concentrated in Asian markets (accounting
for approximately 50% for the period 2000 –
2016). These are markets with similarities in
natural conditions and consumption behavior.
Therefore, when the import countries are able to
produce goods domestically to meet their local
consumption demand, the demand for imported
goods from the Philippines is reduced and it
forces the Philippines to seek for and expand to
new markets in other continentals in the coming
years.
The variable of geographic distance (DISij)
with negative sign shows the reverse impact to
the export of the Philippines with significance
level less than 1%. This result is completely
relevant to the theories and practices of the trade
activities between countries as larger geographic
distance will cause difficulties in shipping and
then reduce the export value. This is also the main
reason why countries prefer nearer countries for
their export.
The inflation variable (INFit) with negative
sign shows the reverse impact on export of the
Philippines with significance level less than 5%.
This means that when inflation rises, the prices
of goods are increased and, thus, demand for
imported goods from the Philippines is reduced.
Although, this result differs from the given
theory and hypothesis, it conforms to general
trend of the globalization process which has been
taking for years. Therefore, one of the factors
that bring about stable development of export is
the timely measures taken by the Government of
the Philippines to moderate domestic inflation.
The APEC dummy variable (APECijt) with
positive coefficient shows the direct impact on
the export of the Philippines with significance
level less than 1%. The results explains that if
two countries (the Philippines and the import
country) are members of APEC, the export
will take place more easily than when the
two countries are not members of APEC. This
